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After the Repercussions of the War. How Is Sudan’s Economy Recovering?

The aspirations of Sudanese citizens for the possibility of peace have risen following the resumption of the last round of negotiations in the Jeddah platform in Saudi Arabia between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, who have been fighting for nearly seven months.

The Sudanese hope that the platform will succeed in getting the two parties to sign an agreement in the next round that will stop the war and destruction that has been going on since mid-April, start a new phase of reconstruction and address the accumulated problems of the Sudanese economy.

The two sides have been engaged in fierce battles in the capital, Khartoum, and other areas, since April 15, in a struggle for power by force of arms, leaving thousands dead and wounded, millions of displaced people and refugees, and an unprecedented security, humanitarian and economic deterioration.

Losses in numbers
According to circulating figures, more than (33) thousand buildings in the capital, Khartoum, were destroyed, while a report by the Sudanese Action Platform seen by (Change) confirmed that (400) facilities for the food, pharmaceutical and other fields were completely out of service after vandalism, arson and theft.

Former Finance Minister Ibrahim al-Badawi estimates that $60 billion is the size of the losses and damage caused to infrastructure, and 20% is the size of the decline in GDP if the war continues.

In addition, 100 branches of banks and banks were damaged, as well as hundreds of small companies, which were affected by looting, theft and damage.

Repair options
Despite the apparent deterioration and the entry of the economy into an unprecedented stage of collapse, a number of specialists and researchers believe that if an agreement is reached to stop the war, reform options are available and possible.

Economic researcher Abdeen Al-Amin told Al-Tagheer that repairing what was destroyed by the war is not impossible, but it needs political will and solidarity among all members of society to advance the country again.

He added: “It may seem early to talk about the reform process in light of the continuation of the war, but in the end this reform process is linked to the next government.

Al-Amin explained that there are two paths of economic reform and reconstruction; the first is difficult and long, but it is better to rely on the interior and take advantage of the available resources in agriculture, industry and livestock with added value to factories in the states and the establishment of new factories with the effort of national investors.

He said: Also announcing public shareholding companies by exploiting the sense of patriotism of citizens and pushing them to participate in reconstruction with a comprehensive public governmental.

He continued: Public shareholding companies start first in two areas, namely livestock and gold; first, a gold company that is an alternative to the current company for mineral resources, whose role should be limited to setting policies only while providing it with qualified and honest cadres in terms of gold has quick financial revenues and can constitute (a path and recovery) for the Sudanese economy, and secondly a company for livestock exports.

Al-Amin concluded: The other way towards reconstruction, of course, is the path of cooperation with international institutions and banks and the IMF (loans and grants), and this is an easy and proven path, but getting rid of it and applying its conditions will have difficult effects in the future.

Optimism and caveats
But economics professor Dr. Sabna Imam is inclined to the view that war is not all evil, “the greatest economies emerged from the womb of wars like the United States, Japan and Korea and the list goes on.”

I have no doubt that Sudan will emerge stronger from this ordeal and will grope for success and prosperity.

She stressed the need to abandon the (rent) economy after the war, which means relying on a specific source of income, for example, previously it was relying on specific agricultural rents, for example, cotton and oilseed crops, and each sect, majority or minority is trying to acquire the largest amount of this production, and you had to have political influence in order to win the lion’s share, so political families and organizations appeared that married their leaders with these families in order to approach the center of power and obtain gains.

She added: Then we moved from the cotton state to the oil state, but negative practices remained in place and entered parties and came out other, then gold rents came as a new justification for the conflict, but this time with the participation of countries.

Sabna called for strong decisions to stop this slide and transform into a multi-developed economic system. She said that the greatest scientific and technological inventions emerged from the womb of wars, such as the Internet, physics, chemistry, medicines, the development of aviation, and the list goes on.

Source: Al-Taghyeer